TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16 ☔
Tropical Storm #MaringPH (KOMPASU)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 11 October 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 AM today
TROPICAL STORM #MaringPH CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm #MaringPH was estimated based on all available data 350 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.8°N, 124.9°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 850 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2 (Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Isabela (Palanan, Divilacan, Maconacon, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, Mallig, Quezon), Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur
(Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
The rest of Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, the northern portion of Bataan (Samal, Morong, Dinalupihan, Abucay, Orani, Hermosa), the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands, and Calaguas Islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Today, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are highly likely over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are also possible over Central Luzon and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Under these conditions, scattered flash floods and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
• Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Tropical Storm “MARING”, monsoon rains are possible over Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Palawan and Occidental Mindoro in the next 24 hours. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #3 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast at 4:00 AM today.
• Considering the likelihood of reaching severe tropical storm category prior or during its passage of the Luzon Strait, winds may reach gale- to storm-force strength within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 is in effect. This may result in generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with higher gusts will be experienced within any of the areas where TCWS #1 is currently in effect. This may generally bring up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
• Due to the expansive wind field of the tropical storm and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, occasional gusts reaching strong to gale-force in strength are possible over the island, coastal, and upland/mountain localities of Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Zamboanga del Norte, and the rest of Luzon.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of Tropical Storm “MARING”, a Gale Warning is in effect for the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #6 issued at 5:00 AM today.
• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.5 to 7.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect. These conditions are risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside.
• Within the same period, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will prevail the remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Storm “MARING” will continue to move west northwestward until this morning or afternoon before turning westward. On the track forecast, the storm will be moving over the Luzon Strait between this afternoon and tomorrow early morning. and pass very close or over the Babuyan Islands, without ruling out the possibility of landfall over mainland northern Cagayan or a close approach over Batanes. However, considering the short-period acceleration observed over the past couple of hours, a slightly earlier traverse of Extreme Northern Luzon (i.e., beginning this morning) remains a possibility.
• “MARING” is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow morning or afternoon. Outside the PAR, the storm will continue moving westward over the West Philippine Sea until it makes landfall in the vicinity of Hainan Island on Wednesday morning or afternoon.
• “MARING” is forecast to consolidate in the near term and intensify into a severe tropical storm within the next 12 hours. Furthermore, this tropical cyclone may reach typhoon category tomorrow over the West Philippine Sea. Weakening will likely take place on Wednesday once “MARING” makes landfall in Hainan Island.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Unless superseded by an intermediate bulletin, the next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.