TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 19

Typhoon “#FabianPH” (IN-FA)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 21 July 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today
TYPHOON “FABIAN” SLIGHTLY DECELERATES WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
• Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon “FABIAN” was estimated based on all available data at 740 km East Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (24.1°N, 128.1°E)
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 970 hPa
• Present Movement:
West southwestward at 10 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 650 km from the center
• TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• “FABIAN” is unlikely to directly bring heavy rainfall in the country throughout the forecast period.
• Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon being enhanced by “FABIAN” and Severe Tropical Storm “CEMPAKA” estimated at 1,030 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon or in the vicinity of Yangjiang, Guangdong, China (outside the PAR) (21.9°N, 111.4°E), monsoon rains will be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands). For more information, see the Weather Advisory #9 for Southwest Monsoon and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast at 11:00 PM yesterday and 4:00 AM today, respectively.
Severe Winds
Due to the uncertainty in the later portion of the track forecast of “FABIAN”, the hoisting of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 over Batanes and Babuyan Islands remains a possibility. Residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, under the influence of the enhanced Southwest Monsoon and “FABIAN”, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and the western seaboard of Palawan (including Kalayaan and Calamian Islands) and Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands). Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will also prevail over the eastern and the rest of the northern and western seaboards of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• FABIAN” will track west southwestward until tomorrow (22 July) morning, westward for the remainder of tomorrow through Friday (23 July) morning, then generally northwestward for the remainder of Friday through the end of the forecast period. On the forecast track, “FABIAN” will pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands of the Ryukyu Archipelago on Friday before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday (24 July) morning.
• A northeastward shift in the later portion of the track forecast has been observed for the past several bulletin issuances. The latest track forecast shows “FABIAN” moving over the coastal waters of northern Taiwan or make landfall in the vicinity of northern Taiwan by Saturday morning or afternoon. The tropical cyclone is also forecast to make another landfall in the vicinity of southeastern mainland China by Sunday (25 July).
• “FABIAN” is forecast to further intensify and reach its peak intensity of 155 km/h on Thursday evening. Gradual weakening may occur beginning on Saturday as the typhoon passes near or over the rugged terrain of Taiwan. The landfall over mainland China will result in the rapid weakening of “FABIAN” on Sunday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Unless an intermediate bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: bit.ly/3eujmdC