TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 29

TYPHOON EGAY IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM DALUPIRI ISLAND

Location of Center (4:00 PM)

The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 70 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (19.4°N, 120.8°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 240 km/h, and central pressure of 935 hPa

Present Movement

Northwestward at 10 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 700 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 4

Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds

Warning lead time: 12 hours

Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)

Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property

Luzon

The northwestern portion of Cagayan (Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Santa Praxedes) including Babuyan Islands and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Burgos, Bangui, Dumalneg, Pagudpud, Adams)

TCWS No. 3

Wind threat: Storm-force winds

Warning lead time: 18 hours

Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)

Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

Batanes, northern and central portions of Cagayan (Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Alcala, Allacapan, Lasam, Baggao, Amulung, Rizal, Santo Niño, Piat, Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri), the rest of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lagayan, Lacub, Danglas, San Juan) and the northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cabugao, Sinait)

TCWS No. 2

Wind threat: Gale-force winds

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Isabela, the rest of Cagayan, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Abra, the northern and central portions of La Union (Luna, Caba, Santol, Bauang, City of San Fernando, San Juan, Bagulin, Bangar, San Gabriel, Burgos, Naguilian, Bacnotan, Sudipen, Balaoan, Aringay), and the northern and central portions of Benguet (Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, La Trinidad, Sablan, Bakun, Buguias, Tublay, Bokod)

TCWS No. 1

Wind threat: Strong winds

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, Cavite, Rizal, Laguna, the rest of La Union and the rest of Benguet, and the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, General Nakar, Real, Lucban, Sampaloc, Mauban) including Pollilo Islands

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon

• Above 200 mm: The northwestern portion of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte

• 100-200 mm: Batanes, Ilocos Sur, the rest of Cagayan, Apayao, and Abra

• 50-100 mm: Zambales and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region and Ilocos Region

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by EGAY will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #8 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 PM today.

Severe Winds

Violent, life-threatening conditions are expected to continue over Babuyan Islands, the northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portions of Apayao and Ilocos Norte in the next 6 hours.

Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 4. Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

• Today: Luzon and Visayas

• Tomorrow: Luzon and Western Visayas

• Friday: Batanes, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, the southern portion of Quezon, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas

Coastal Inundation

There is a high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and portions of Isabela and Ilocos Sur. Maximum surge heights may exceed 3.0 m in most of the warning areas. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #11 issued at 2:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.

Rough to high or very high seas: Sea travel is risky for most vessels. All mariners are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor until winds and waves subside.

Rough to very rough seas: Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.

For more information, refer to Gale Warning #8 issued at 5:00 PM today.

In the next 24 hours, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• EGAY is forecast to track generally northwestward or north northwestward and pass over the waters south and southwest of Taiwan. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow morning. Outside the PAR region, EGAY will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Friday morning.

• EGAY is forecast to weaken throughout the forecast period, although the rate of weakening will not be rapid due to slightly favorable environment offsetting the impact of land interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Taiwan. A more rapid weakening is expected once EGAY makes landfall and moves inland over mainland China, with the tropical cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by Saturday.